Kazakhstan’s Path to Carbon Neutrality Could Run Through the Gulf

The Gulf states hold a unique position among Kazakhstan's international partners, as demonstrated by Kazakhstan's involvement in the 2023 Central Asia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit. Addressing the summit in Jeddah, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev highlighted the potential for synergy between Central Asia’s resources and the Gulf states’ economic innovation. He emphasised the vast opportunities in this relationship and their collective capacity to elevate their multifaceted partnership.

At the summit, discussions centred around expanding energy collaboration, with a focus on advancements in green energy and the modernisation of power generation infrastructure. President Tokayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan's willingness to engage in close partnerships with Persian Gulf energy companies.

Decarbonisation policy is an emerging development priority for Kazakhstan, reflecting global trends in sustainability and climate action. The transition to a low-carbon economy presents a significant challenge, requiring comprehensive measures for the technological modernisation of the national economy, especially in the extractive industries.

At the Climate Ambition Summit in December 2020, Kazakhstan announced its goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. This commitment was formalised in February 2023 with the adoption of the Strategy for Achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2060.The strategy seeks to balance carbon dioxide emissions with removals from the atmosphere, with an interim target to decrease greenhouse gas emissions by 15 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. This reduction could be increased to 25 percent, provided international assistance is secured for the decarbonisation efforts. 

Transitioning to a decarbonised future requires a fundamental shift away from Kazakhstan’s coal-dependent energy system. The strategy estimates a total investment of $610 billion, with over half of this funding reallocated from conventional industries to more sustainable sectors. The remaining portion will be sourced from newly established investment channels.

Prominent financial organisations, including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), remain committed to backing decarbonisation projects. Simultaneously, Kazakhstan is actively enacting reforms to encourage private sector investment in renewable energy sources.

Recognising the financial and technological commitments needed for decarbonisation, Kazakhstan is diligently fostering international partnerships. This approach is yielding support from key partners such as the EU, China, the World Bank, and the EBRD, thereby attracting further investment and the adoption of cutting-edge technologies. But additional sources of climate financing are needed—the Gulf is stepping up its commitments.

In December 2023, the sixth session of the Kazakh-Saudi intergovernmental commission convened in Riyadh to explore new opportunities for collaboration. During the meeting, ACWA Power, a Saudi company, announced plans to invest approximately $10 billion in Kazakhstan's green energy sector. This investment would support the growth of wind and hydrogen energy, thereby aiding Kazakhstan's broader decarbonisation efforts.

In March 2024, Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia formalised this partnership for the ACWA Power project through an intergovernmental agreement, outlining their commitment to build wind power plants with a combined capacity of 1 GW, equipped with an integrated energy storage system. The project's initial investment is expected to exceed $1.8 billion. Additionally, both nations have partnered to establish a shared innovation hub in Riyadh, designed to promote Kazakhstan's IT solutions and burgeoning startups in the Middle Eastern market.

Kazakhstan is also working on its collaborations with the UAE on solar and wind initiatives. A significant milestone in this partnership was the signing of an investment deal with Masdar in 2022, aimed at building a 1 GW wind farm in the Zhambyl region. This project incorporates advanced energy storage solutions, enhancing the reliability and stability of Kazakhstan's power grid while increasing the share of renewables in the nation's energy mix and reducing carbon emissions.

Kazakhstan's regional prominence stems from its position as Central Asia’s largest economy and a leading hydrocarbon exporter, attracting roughly 60 percent of FDI inflows into Central Asia. Recognising its responsibility to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the country has pioneered the region’s first carbon trading system, creating economic incentives for businesses to decrease their emissions.

With an estimated renewable energy capacity of 1 trillion kilowatt-hours, Kazakhstan also shares its expertise with neighbouring countries, contributing to broader regional environmental improvements.

Kazakhstan is also strengthening green cooperation with Central Asian neighbors through initiatives like the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, which addresses environmental degradation, and the Central Asian Regional Environmental Center, which supports cross-border water and biodiversity projects. In 2024, The Presidents of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan signed a strategic agreement on the intersystem integration of the energy systems of the three countries. Collaborative efforts are also emerging through the Central Asian Regional Environmental Center (CAREC), facilitating cross-border projects focused on water resource management and safeguarding biodiversity.

Concurrently, Gulf countries are also deepening green partnerships in the region. Masdar of the United Arab Emirates is leading major projects in Uzbekistan, including the 100-megawatt Nur Navoi solar power plant. Masdar has also signed an agreement with the Kyrgyz Republic’s Ministry of Energy to develop a pipeline of renewable projects in the Central Asian nation, with a capacity of up to 1 gigawatt, starting with a 200-megawatt solar photovoltaic plant. Tajikistan is partnering with the Abu Dhabi Development Fund and is being considered as a potential investor in the Rogun project. These collaborations drive regional energy transformation and deepen links between Central Asia and the Gulf through sustainable development and shared climate objectives.

In correspondence with the shift towards climate action worldwide, Kazakhstan is not only aligning with global sustainability trends but is also crafting its own unique model for a green economy, setting a precedent for the entire region. Through a combination of national strategies and active regional partnerships, Kazakhstan is positioning itself as a hub for clean energy innovation and sustainable development in Central Asia.

Photo: Eni