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All by Djavad Salehi-Isfahani
The gasoline price hike of November 15 triggered widespread violent protests in Iranian cities. Three days later the government announced that it would increase the amount of cash transfers to compensate for the price increase and soften its blow. But do the new transfers adequately compensate for the gasoline price increase?
Earlier this month, the Statistical Center of Iran reported a record high level of employed Iranians, with nearly 25 million people in work. Meanwhile, the IMF has revised down its 2019 projection for Iran’s economic growth to -9.5 percent. What explains the divergent narratives in Iran’s employment data and growth data?
◢ New data indicate that, while Donald Trump’s policy of “maximum pressure” has reduced Iranian oil exports to near zero and seriously hurt Iran’s economy, it has not caused anything resembling economic collapse. Furthermore, these data suggest that the economy is not in a steep decline, one that would anytime soon force Iran to capitulate.
